Random probability analysis of recent 48Ca experiments

NUCL 38

J. B. Patin1, Mark A. Stoyer, stoyer1@llnl.gov1, Jacqueline M. Kenneally, kenneally1@llnl.gov2, K. J. Moody1, Dawn A. Shaughnessy, shaughnessy2@llnl.gov3, N. J. Stoyer1, J. F. Wild1, Philip A. Wilk, wilk2@llnl.gov2, V. K. Utyonkov4, and Yu. Ts. Oganessian4. (1) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, L-236, Livermore, CA 94551, (2) Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-236, Livermore, CA 94551, (3) Chemical Biology and Nuclear Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, L-236, Livermore, CA 94551, (4) Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 141980 Dubna, Russia
During the past few years, numerous experiments have been performed at the JINR U400 Cyclotron Facility in Dubna, Russia bombarding various actinide targets (238U, 242,244Pu, 243Am, 245,248Cm, and 249Cf) with 48Ca aimed at producing isotopes of elements 112-118. Recent novel and independent data analysis of the information gathered during these experiments was performed at LLNL and corroborated the results observed at JINR. One of the problems associated with the results of these experiments is the possibility that observance of these isotopes might be due to random correlations in the data. The Monte Carlo random probability analysis developed at LLNL for such heavy element experiments was performed to evaluate the probability of observing random correlations in the experimental data. The results of the analysis and its implications on the results of the production experiments of the heaviest elements will be discussed.